Models

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 8 brokers · 306 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-11.

Broker models cast TOWR as a mature Indonesian tower operator: near-consensus on the headline P&L, with revenue holding around Rp13.3T and EBITDA flat near Rp11T through FY-2028. The debate is not the top line but the mix and the cash: non-tower revenue is now the faster-growing ~40% of sales, tower-leasing KPIs are decelerating, and brokers split widely on capex, free cash flow and the dividend. Forward coverage thins sharply, from eight brokers in FY-2025 to two-to-three thereafter.

Non-tower revenue is the modeled swing factor as tower leasing flattens near Rp8.4T

Only two brokers split tower from non-tower, so treat the mix as indicative. On those models tower leasing is roughly flat around Rp8.4T while non-tower revenue compounds in the mid-single digits, making it the marginal driver of total growth.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Total revenue	Rp13,328.62bn	Rp13,845.45bn	Rp14,146.75bn	Rp14,460.88bn	+3.9%	8
Revenue - tower	Rp9,105.16bn	Rp8,354.35bn	Rp8,449.27bn	Rp8,559.71bn	-8.2%	6
Revenue - non tower	—	Rp5,511.86bn	Rp5,720.18bn	Rp5,901.17bn	—	2

Tenant growth decelerates and the tenancy ratio plateaus near 1.66

Ending tenants step up in FY-2026 then flatten toward 63,000, with the tenancy ratio settling around 1.66 and annualised revenue per tenant broadly flat near Rp230M. Growth increasingly leans on colocations onto existing sites rather than new-site builds.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Volume	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ending tenants(#)	58,339 Number	61,457 Number	62,630 Number	63,000 Number	+5.3%	8
Ending sites(#)	36,238 Number	36,897 Number	37,530 Number	37,997 Number	+1.8%	8
Utilisation	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tenancy ratio(#)	1.60 Number	1.66 Number	1.67 Number	1.65 Number	+3.9%	7
Volume	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net adds-tenant(#)	716.6 Number	1,375 Number	1,173 Number	1,075 Number	+91.9%	5
Unit economics	—	—	—	—	—	—
Revenue per tenant-Annualised	Rp229.88m	Rp226.97m	Rp228.02m	Rp231.45m	-1.3%	8

EBITDA holds near Rp11T while easing capex funds a step-up in the dividend

EBITDA is modeled essentially flat around Rp11T. With capital expenditure easing from above Rp5T toward the low Rp4T range, brokers carry EPS drifting up toward Rp72 and a dividend that steps up from roughly Rp20 to Rp24 per share.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
EBITDA	Rp11,125.96bn	Rp11,093.50bn	Rp11,315.38bn	Rp11,453.08bn	-0.3%	8
Capital expenditure	Rp5,150.78bn	Rp4,464.77bn	Rp4,314.32bn	Rp4,617.35bn	-13.3%	6
EPS-Diluted(IDR)	Rp65.47	Rp66.63	Rp69.25	Rp71.59	+1.8%	8
Dividend per share(IDR)	Rp20.02	Rp23.71	Rp23.57	Rp23.34	+18.4%	8

Consensus is tight on revenue but splits widely on capex, free cash flow and payout

Revenue and EBITDA sit inside a narrow band, but the models diverge on how much TOWR invests and returns. Capex, free cash flow and the dividend show the widest FY-2025 dispersion despite eight-broker coverage.

Line	Period	Median	Q1–Q3	Min–max	Brokers
Capital expenditure	FY-2025A	Rp5,367.07bn	Rp4,172.78bn–Rp6,513.47bn	Rp2,562.13bn–Rp6,938.13bn	6
Free cash flow (FCF)	FY-2025A	Rp2,666.30bn	Rp1,944.83bn–Rp5,462.12bn	Rp-511.31bn–Rp6,692.84bn	6
Dividend per share(IDR)	FY-2025A	Rp20.56	Rp15.97–Rp22.21	Rp13.82–Rp27.17	8
Net adds-sites(#)	FY-2025A	928.0 Number	617.0 Number–1,425 Number	400.0 Number–2,440 Number	8

Forward coverage thins to two-to-three brokers; the revenue split rests on two

Eight brokers model FY-2025, but only two to three carry FY-2026 through FY-2028. The tower/non-tower split, colocation counts and free cash flow rest on one or two models, so read forward-year and segment figures as thin rather than settled consensus.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.