Chapter 2

Financials and Estimates

Five years of statements describe a business whose revenue rose 54% — from Rp8.6 trillion in 2021 to Rp13.3 trillion in 2025 — while earnings per share went nowhere, holding at Rp69 in both bookend years. The gap is explained inside the accounts: growth has decelerated as the core tower-lease line flattened, finance costs still absorb roughly two-fifths of operating profit, and successive equity raises spread the profit over more shares. Consensus expects low-single-digit revenue growth and easing returns through 2028.

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Financial Highlights and Key Ratios [1] [2]; free cash flow derived as operating cash flow less capex.

Revenue climbed; per-share earnings did not

Revenue growth has faded steadily since the 2021 acquisition of Indosat's tower portfolio, which drove the 27.8% jump into 2022. The three years since have run +6.4%, +8.5% and +4.6% — a business settling into mid-single-digit growth [3]. Operating profit tracked revenue, rising 39% over four years to Rp7.5 trillion. Net profit did not: it moved from Rp3.45 trillion in 2021 to Rp3.68 trillion in 2025, up 7% in total, and basic earnings per share printed Rp69, Rp69, Rp65, Rp67, Rp69 across the five years [4].

Source: FY2023 and FY2025 Annual Reports, Financial Highlights; net profit attributable to owners of the parent [5] [6].

Two effects hold the bottom line down. The first is where the growth comes from; the second is what happens between operating profit and the shareholder.

Where growth is coming from — and where it is not

The company reports revenue in three lines. Tower tenancies — the long-term, non-cancellable lease income that defines the landlord model — grew just 2.1% and 2.4% in the last two years, from Rp8.35 trillion in 2023 to Rp8.73 trillion in 2025 [7]. All the top-line growth is in the adjacent businesses: VSAT and wireline (fibre) revenue rose 28.6% then 31.4% to Rp1.55 trillion, and services and other rose to Rp3.05 trillion. The tower line, 71% of revenue in 2023, is down to 65% in 2025.

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Operational Highlights (Revenue by Line) [8].

That mix shift is visible in margins. Group EBITDA margin held above 86% in 2021–2022 and has since drifted to 85.0%, 84.0% and 82.3% [9]. The lower-margin fibre and services lines are doing the growing, so the blended margin erodes even as absolute EBITDA rises. An 82% EBITDA margin remains exceptional for any business; the point is the direction, and its source in the revenue mix rather than in cost inflation.

From operating profit to net profit: the finance-cost wedge

The larger drag sits below operating profit. In 2025, operating profit of Rp7.50 trillion became profit for the year of Rp3.68 trillion. Net finance cost of Rp3.08 trillion — interest on roughly Rp44.6 trillion of bank loans and bonds — took 41% of operating profit, and Indonesia's final-tax regime on tower rental took a further Rp0.77 trillion [10]. Between them, roughly half of operating profit never reaches the income line.

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss and Financial Highlights [11] [12].

This wedge is the reason a landlord with 82% EBITDA margins reports a ~28% net margin, and it is also where the deleveraging matters. Finance cost was already flat year-on-year (Rp3.14 trillion in 2024, Rp3.08 trillion in 2025) even as average debt rose, and the second-half 2025 debt reduction — gross borrowings fell from Rp51.4 trillion to Rp44.6 trillion — lands mostly in future years [13]. Lower interest expense is the clearest path by which flat operating profit could still lift earnings per share.

Cash generation and the balance-sheet reset

Cash conversion is the strongest part of the record. Operating cash flow rose every year, reaching Rp10.35 trillion in 2025, while capital expenditure fell to Rp3.29 trillion from Rp4.52 trillion as tower building slowed. Free cash flow — operating cash flow less capex — stepped up to Rp7.07 trillion, from Rp4.82 trillion a year earlier [14]. Against net profit of Rp3.68 trillion, that is cash generation well ahead of accounting earnings — the depreciation on a large tower base is a non-cash charge, so reported profit understates the cash the assets throw off.

Source: audited consolidated statements of cash flows, FY2020–FY2025; capex is purchases of fixed assets, free cash flow derived [15].

That cash, plus a Rp5.5 trillion rights issue, funded a genuine reset of the balance sheet. Equity rose from Rp19.2 trillion to Rp27.1 trillion, gross debt fell Rp6.9 trillion, and net debt to EBITDA dropped to 3.7x from 4.6x — the sharpest single-year deleveraging in the five-year record [16]. The equity injection is also why reported return on equity fell — from 20.0% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2025 — despite higher profit: the denominator grew faster than the numerator [17]. The reset leaned on fresh equity, not only on internal cash; but with free cash flow now above Rp7 trillion, the business can continue reducing debt from its own generation.

Source: FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 Annual Reports, Financial Highlights and Key Ratios; free cash flow derived from cash-flow statements [18] [19] [20].

What consensus expects

Thirteen analysts cover the stock, and their forward view is modest. Revenue is seen at Rp13.9 trillion in 2026 and Rp14.2 trillion in 2027 — roughly 4.5% then 2.3% growth — with EBITDA edging from Rp11.2 trillion toward Rp11.6 trillion [21]. Earnings per share are expected to dip to about Rp67 in 2026 — the full-year effect of the enlarged share count from the 2025 rights issue — before recovering to roughly Rp72 in 2027 and Rp73 by 2028, still barely above the Rp69 posted in 2021. Consensus return on equity eases from the mid-teens toward roughly 12.5% by 2028.

Sources: FY2024–FY2025 actuals from Financial Highlights [22]; FY2026–FY2029 consensus estimates [23].

The consensus price target is Rp685 (median Rp660; range Rp390–Rp950), about 65% above the recent Rp414, with nine of thirteen analysts at their strongest buy rating and none negative [24]. The dividend is expected to grow from roughly Rp19 per share for 2025 toward Rp21 by 2027 — a yield near 5% at the current price, and one the free-cash-flow profile can cover several times over. The tension is plain in the numbers: analysts pair low-single-digit operating growth and a declining return on equity with a target two-thirds above the market price. The bridge between the two is deleveraging and a re-rating of the multiple, not a re-acceleration of the business — a reconciliation the valuation and competition chapters take up.

What would change the read

The financials support a specific reading: this is a cash-rich, deleveraging landlord whose aggregate profit grows slowly and whose per-share earnings have been flat, not a business in decline. Three things would move that read. If tower-tenancy revenue — the durable core — resumed mid-single-digit growth rather than the ~2% of the last two years, the low-growth label would weaken. If finance costs fell materially as the lower debt balance flows through 2026–2027, flat operating profit could still produce visible EPS growth. And if capex re-accelerates toward the Rp4–5 trillion consensus pencils in for later years, the 2025 free-cash-flow step-up would prove partly a timing effect rather than a durable new level.